The chart shows quarterly economic growth (GDP growth). It is the year-on-year growth rate, i.e. growth compared to the same quarter in the previous year. The forecast is based on the development of a number of confidence and sentiment indicators.
The model is based on a number of confidence and sentiment indicators, as shown in the graphs below. Apart from the exceptional quarters of 2020Q2 and 2021Q2, the indicators used have proven to be good predictors of economic growth.
To forecast the coming quarters, we examined the weighted average trend of each of the indicators over the past 24, 12, and 6 months, with more weight given to the recent past. Based on the trend in the underlying indicators, we expect growth in 2021 to be 1.6%. This is lower than the most recent CPB estimate of 3.9%.
The second quarter of 2021 saw a very strong recovery compared to the dramatic second quarter of 2020. Such extreme growth rates (downward or upward) are not usually well captured by statistical models. For 2022, we expect growth on current trends to amount to 2.1%, which is lower than the CPB’s estimate of 3.5%.
The vacancy indicator gives an indication of the direction in which the vacancies are expected to develop according to the entrepreneurs. The more optimistic or pessimistic the entrepreneurs are about the development of the vacancies, the more the value of the vacancy indicator will deviate positively or negatively from the zero line and the more the expectation is that the vacancies will increase or decrease. The indicator is made up of several sub-indicators derived from various variables in the monthly business surveys conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and the Economic Institute for Construction (EIB). The results are provisional for six months and may change during that period.
Consumer confidence is an indicator that provides information about the confidence and opinions of consumers regarding the developments of the Dutch economy and their own financial situation. The more optimistic or pessimistic consumers are, the more the value of consumer confidence will deviate positively or negatively from the zero line. The graph shows the total consumer confidence and specifically the confidence in the economic situation in the next 12 months.
Producer confidence is a mood indicator of the entrepreneurs in the industry, indicating the direction in which industrial production is expected to develop. The more optimistic or pessimistic the entrepreneurs are, the more the value of producer confidence will deviate positively or negatively from the zero line and the greater the expectation that production will increase or decrease in the coming months.
The graph shows the percentage increase/decrease in the number of hours worked in temp jobs compared to the same period last year. The number of hours worked is not reported in months, but in periods of four weeks.
The AEX Index is the most important Dutch stock exchange index. The index shows the price development of the 25 shares with the largest market capitalisation on the Amsterdam stock exchange. From the weighted average of the prices of these shares, the position of the AEX is calculated. The graph shows the average price per month.
The index shows the confidence that purchasing managers have in the economy. The greater the PMI deviates from 50, the greater the degree of change in the economy. A PMI above 50 indicates a rising trend, a positive economic outlook. A PMI below 50 indicates a downward trend, a negative market sentiment.